体制类型说。威廉·里德(William Reed)、库尔特·泰勒·高巴茨(Kurt Taylor Gaubatz)、布雷特·阿什利·利兹(Brett Ashley Leeds)和布尔库·萨文(Burcu Savun)、斯科特·本尼特(Scott Bennett)以及托马斯·里斯-卡彭(Thomas Risse-Kappen)等人考察了民主制度和同盟行为之间的关系,得出结论是民主国家组成的同盟更容易持续,而非民主国家组成的同盟更容易解体。②这一结论有两个解释范式:首先是理性主义解释范式,按照这种解释范式,民主国家的同盟更稳固的原因是其建立在一种利益计算的基础之上。第一是单位层次的解释逻辑。因为民主国家之间的承诺更加持久①,它们拥有更好的声誉,使得双方对于同盟信誉(credibility)更有信心②,所以同盟就更不容易弱化。第二是领导人个人层次的解释逻辑,认为民主国家的领导人面临强大的国内制度约束。由于民主国家国内政治的结构性限制,内部高度制度化的决策机制对政府具有强大的约束力,民主国家的领导人发现他们更难以对已有的政策进行更改,所以很难根据现实情况的变化作出退出或弱化同盟这样的机会主义反应。而且当领导人个人为了维持自己在国内的地位时,他们也更倾向于在外部维持稳定的外交关系③,而不是弱化动摇已有的同盟。因此,民主国家组成的同盟更加稳固。
其次是反思主义(reflectionist)即建构主义的解释范式。依据这种范式,民主国家之间的同盟更不容易解体首先是因为民主国家之间拥有共同的法治(rule of law)规范。④因为民主国家之间签订的盟约和所作出的国际承诺已经成为国际法的一部分,而且有些已经通过国内政治程序变成了国内法的一部分,拥有法治规范的民主国家将会遵守原先的盟约和国际承诺,所以民主国家组成的同盟更可能维持。其次是民主国家同盟将他们的国内规范外化,创建了多元安全共同体⑤,从而使得民主国家联盟更容易维持。但是体制类型说既无法解释美日、美韩同盟与北约弱化程度的差异,也无法解释它们的弱化,因为它们都是由民主国家组成的同盟,而且体制状态也没有发生变化。
这里有必要简单讨论一下可靠性(reliability)、声誉(reputation)与信誉(credibility)的联系与区别。它们的联系如上文所述,可靠性和声誉会影响安全承诺信息来源的信誉,进而影响战略信誉。它们的主要区别是:可靠性和声誉针对的是行为体过去的行为,而信誉针对的是行为体未来的行为。可靠性是对行为体过去履行承诺行为的度量,而声誉本身是指行为体过去的行为模式①,只是声誉的概念范畴大于可靠性,可以包含可靠型声誉(reputation for reliability)、决心型声誉(reputation for resolve)等等。
战略信誉对于同盟来讲至关重要,但是有关同盟的文献对战略信誉的讨论很少。在国际关系学科中,主要是研究威慑的学者关注战略信誉即威慑的可信度问题,比如,亨利·A.基辛格(Henry A. Kissinger)认为威慑的可信度既依赖于威慑方的实力和决心,也依赖于对方对其实力和决心的认知。②威慑理论关注的是威胁的承诺信誉(credibility of commitment),这仅仅是战略信誉的一种。谢尔盖·斯莫尔尼科夫(Sergey Smolnikov)则关注权力的信誉(credibility of power),他提出国家在实力相对下降的阶段将会采取似乎不太合理的外交政策来强化自身权力的可信程度,因为在实力相对下降的阶段,权力的信誉更容易遭受质疑。③阎学通所创立的道义现实主义理论是系统论述战略信誉的影响的最新学术成果,他提出战略信誉作为国际道德的最低标准,是大国建立国际权威(authority)的前提,而权威、实力和权力构成了国际领导力的三个来源。阎学通认为战略信誉与一个国家的国际地位和领导力的持续时间正相关,对于崛起国建立国际领导力从而实现领导权的转移至关重要。④
在屈指可数的几篇有关同盟信誉的文献中,有两篇讨论的是影响同盟信誉的因素,有两篇讨论的是同盟信誉的战略效应。詹姆斯·D.莫罗(James D. Morrow)讨论了同盟信誉的来源。他批评了已有的认为国家履约是为了避免声誉损失,因此同盟信誉来源于对声誉损失的担心的观点。莫罗提出国家不履约或履约失败会损害声誉,但不一定会损害同盟信誉,比如,美国从越南撤军的行为没有损害以美国为首的北约保护西欧免受苏联入侵的信誉。莫罗认为,同盟承诺之所以可信,是因为同盟可以作为一种盟友之间共同利益的信号,使得承诺对于自己的盟友和对手而言都是可信的,这才是同盟信誉的来源。简而言之,同盟信誉来源于对盟友之间共同利益的相信程度。①而杰西·C.约翰逊(Jesse C. Johnson)和斯蒂芬·乔伊纳(Stephen Joiner)则发现同盟成员国的实力发生重大变化时,同盟信誉就会降低,因为已有研究表明,同盟成员国的实力发生重大变化时,同盟可靠性就会降低,其他国家观察到这种实力变化就会对同盟成员国履约持怀疑态度。②
研究同盟信誉战略效应的文献关注的一是其对同盟形成的影响,二是其对同盟解体的影响。迈克尔·C.霍洛维茨(Michael C. Horowitz)、保罗·波斯特(Paul Poast)和艾伦·C.斯塔姆(Allan C. Stam)讨论的是一个国家的战略信誉对其加入新同盟的影响,他们认为信誉高的国家更有可能参与新同盟③,其结论基本和研究国家声誉对组成新同盟的影响的文献相似。①这从逻辑上也是能够成立的,因为如上文所述,国家的声誉会影响到国家的信誉,这两者是高度相关的。
肯尼思·沃尔兹(Kenneth N. Waltz)和阎学通也认为行为体的利益具有层次性:安全和生存利益是行为体的首要利益,国家只有保证了基本的生存后才会去追求经济等相对次要的利益②,也就是说,高位政治领域事务的重要性高于低位政治领域。因为不同问题领域的事务对于国家的重要性不一样,高位政治领域的重要性高于低位政治,所以盟主所做出的自损战略信誉的行为如果发生在高位政治领域,则给盟国带来的利益损失大;如果发生在低位政治领域,则给盟国带来的利益损失相对较小。盟友遭受利益损失,就会有一种被剥夺感即绝对被剥夺感。利益受损越大,被剥夺感越强。
第一,特朗普政府明确确认了《美日安保条约》涵盖钓鱼岛。詹姆斯·马蒂斯(James Norman Mattis)就任美国国防部长后的第一次出访就去了日本。2017年2月3日,在会见日本首相安倍晋三时,他明确表示美国将和日本肩并肩站在一起。② 2017年2月4日,在与日本防卫大臣稻田朋美会晤后共同会见记者时,他公开宣称美国承认日本对钓鱼岛的行政管辖,因此《美日安保条约》第五条涵盖钓鱼岛。①《美日安保条约》第五条规定:任何对日本行政管辖领土的武力攻击将危及双方的和平与安全,双方将依据宪法条款与程序采取行动应对共同的威胁。②这是特朗普政府的高级官员第一次明确确认这种条约义务。2017年2月10日,特朗普在安倍晋三访美时与其发表了联合声明,宣称美国将使用所有的军事力量包括常规武器和核武器来保卫日本,美国对此承诺毫不动摇。美日两国领导人确认《美日安保条约》第五条适用于钓鱼岛,并且声称反对任何损害日本对钓鱼岛管辖权的单方面行动。③这个表态和奥巴马政府特别是奥巴马本人所做的表态一致④,也就是说特朗普遵守了美国对日本的已有安全承诺。
鉴于特朗普在北约峰会上拒绝确认北约第五条款以及在七国集团峰会上与其他六国在贸易和气候变化等问题上分歧严重,2017年5月28日,德国总理默克尔在巴伐利亚竞选集会上说:"欧洲完全依靠别人保护的日子不再了,欧洲必须准备把命运掌握在自己手中,必须依靠自己为欧洲未来的命运而战斗。" ②在特朗普不顾盟友的反对退出JCPOA后,2018年5月10日,默克尔又公开宣称欧洲不能再依靠美国的保护了,督促欧洲要把命运掌握在自己手里。马克龙呼应说:"欧洲国家不能让其他大国包括自己的盟国来决定我们的外交和安全。" ③
对于这一现象,我们似乎可以从特朗普的"美国优先"和"重经济轻战略"的政策偏好以及中国崛起的领域这几个角度予以解释。"美国优先"意味着特朗普政府更关注合作的相对获益而非绝对获益,即不太关注合作是否能让自己获益,而只关注合作后自己的获益是否比其他合作者多,即获益的分配问题。而沃尔兹、阿瑟·斯坦(Arthur A. Stein)、约瑟夫·M。格里科(Joseph M. Grieco)和罗伯特·鲍威尔(Robert Powell)认为关注相对获益会阻止国家开展合作。①同样,关注相对获益也会使得美国认为与盟友的合作不划算,从而使其做出许多损害盟友利益的行为。此外,特朗普本身重经济轻战略,而盟国只能在安全领域提供支持。对于特朗普来讲,在没有战争的情况下,盟友的作用不大。而在经济领域,一些盟友甚至是竞争对手。因此,从经济角度来讲同盟体系并不重要。"美国优先"和"重经济轻战略"对美国同盟政策的影响反映的是特朗普个人价值观对美国同盟政策的影响。最后,中国的崛起主要体现在经济领域,中国对美国主导地位的威胁主要也在经济领域。因此,特朗普政府主要从经济角度强化与中国的竞争,而同盟主要是安全机制,对于经济竞争无法提供足够的支撑。但特朗普同盟战略是否真是以上三个因素所致,则将是笔者下一步需要深入研究探讨的问题。
Idrees Ali, 【-逻*辑*与-】quot;French Minister Expresses Concern about Long-Term U.S. Commitment to NATO,【-逻*辑*与-】quot; Reuters, March 19, 2019, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-france-usa-nato-idUSKCN1QZ29K,访问时间:2019年12月14日;"Emmanuel Macron Warns Europe: NATO Is Becoming Brain-dead,【-逻*辑*与-】quot; The Economist, November 7, 2019, https://www.economist.com/europe/2019/11/07/emmanuel-macron-warns-europenato-is-becoming-brain-dead,访问时间:2019年12月14日。
Stephen Walt, The Origins of Alliances (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1987), Chapter 2.
Scott Bennett, 【-逻*辑*与-】quot;Testing Alternative Models of Alliance Duration, 1816—1984," American Journal of Political Science, Vol.41, No.3, 1997, pp.848-849; Brett Ashley Leeds and Burcu Savun, 【-逻*辑*与-】quot;Terminating Alliances: Why Do States Abrogate Agreements?" Journal of Politics, Vol.69, Nol.4, 2007, pp.1119-1120; Michael F. Altfeld, 【-逻*辑*与-】quot;The Decision to Ally: A Theory and Test,【-逻*辑*与-】quot; The Western Political Quarterly, Vol.37, No.4, 1984, pp.523-544; James D. Morrow, 【-逻*辑*与-】quot;Alliances and Asymmetry: An Alternative to the Capability Aggregation Model of Alliances,【-逻*辑*与-】quot; American Journal of Political Science, Vol. 35, No. 4, 1991, pp. 904-933.
杜特尔特一上台就担心其政权可能被政变推翻,参见:"A Coup in the Philippines?【-逻*辑*与-】quot; Real Clear Defense, December 6, 2016, https://www.realcleardefense. com/articles/2016/12/06/a_coup_in_the_philippines_110445.html; Whitney Webb,【-逻*辑*与-】quot;A U.S.-led Military Coup Could Be Brewing in the Philippines to Oust Duterte,【-逻*辑*与-】quot; Mint Press News, June 14, 2017, https://www.mintpressnews.com/a-u-s-led-military-coup-could-be-brewing-in-the-philippines-to-oust-duterte/228838/,访问时间:2019年12月14日。杜特尔特上台后美菲同盟的弱化发生在特朗普2017年1月20日上台之前,因此美菲同盟的弱化与特朗普无关,不属于本文所关注的范围。当然,仔细考察特朗普上台后的美菲关系,可以发现因为特朗普政府不再批评杜特尔特政府的禁毒战争,双方同盟关系实际上又从某种程度上恢复了,特别是在美国宣布《美菲共同防御条约》覆盖南海之后。参见:《蓬佩奥:南中国海若有事美保证助菲国抵御【-逻*辑*与-】quot;武装攻击【-逻*辑*与-】quot;》,《联合早报》2019年3月2日,http://www.zaobao.com/news/sea/story20190302-936216,访问时间:2019年12月14日。这种因为共同威胁的改变引起的同盟弱化,沃尔特的威胁均衡理论已经可以解释,因此,也不在笔者的考察范围之内。
周建仁:《走向决裂:弱国退出同盟之谜》,北京:社会科学文献出版社,2018年,第59—61页。
Stephen Walt, 【-逻*辑*与-】quot;Why Alliances Endure or Collapse,【-逻*辑*与-】quot; Survival, Vol. 39, No. 1, 1997, p. 166; Celeste Wallander and Robert Keohane, 【-逻*辑*与-】quot;An Institutional Approach to Alliance Theory,【-逻*辑*与-】quot; working paper 95-2, Center for International Affairs, Harvard University, MA: Cambridge, April, 1995, pp. 1-50.
Stephen Walt, 【-逻*辑*与-】quot;Why Alliances Endure or Collapse,【-逻*辑*与-】quot; Survival, Vol. 39, No. 1, 1997, pp.166-167.
有关民主制度和同盟持续的关系参见:William Reed, 【-逻*辑*与-】quot;Alliance Duration and Democracy: An Extension and Cross-Validation of 【-逻*辑*与-】apos;Democratic States and Commitment in International Relations’,【-逻*辑*与-】quot; American Journal of Political Science, Vol. 41, No. 3, 1997, pp. 1072-1078; Kurt Taylor Gaubatz, 【-逻*辑*与-】quot;Democratic States and Commitment in International Relations,【-逻*辑*与-】quot; International Organization, Vol. 50, No. 1, 1996, pp. 109-139; Brett Ashley Leeds, 【-逻*辑*与-】quot;Alliance Reliability in Times of War: Explaining State Decisions to Violate Treaties,【-逻*辑*与-】quot; International Organization, Vol. 57, No. 4, 2003, pp. 801-827; Brett Ashley Leeds and Burcu Savun, 【-逻*辑*与-】quot;Terminating Alliances: Why Do States Abrogate Agreements?【-逻*辑*与-】quot; Journal of Politics, Vol. 69, Nol. 4, 2007, pp. 1118-1132; Scott Bennett, 【-逻*辑*与-】quot;Testing Alternative Models of Alliance Duration, 1816—1984,【-逻*辑*与-】quot; American Journal of Political Science, Vol. 41, No. 3, 1997, pp. 846-878.
Peter Cowhey, 【-逻*辑*与-】quot;Domestic Institutions and the Credibility of International Commitments: Japan and the United States,【-逻*辑*与-】quot; International Organization, Vol. 47, No. 2, 1993, pp. 299-326; Kurt Taylor Gaubatz, 【-逻*辑*与-】quot;Democratic States and Commitment in International Relations,【-逻*辑*与-】quot; International Organization, Vol. 50, No. 1, 1996, pp. 109-139.
信誉的降低甚至会导致同盟解体,参见:Stephen Walt,【-逻*辑*与-】quot;Why Alliances Endure or Collapse,【-逻*辑*与-】quot; Survival, Vol. 39, No. 1, 1997, pp. 160-161.
Brett Ashley Leeds and Burcu Savun, 【-逻*辑*与-】quot;Terminating Alliances: Why Do States Abrogate Agreements?【-逻*辑*与-】quot; Journal of Politics, Vol. 69, No.4, 2007, p. 1122.
Ibid.
Thomas Risse-Kappen, 【-逻*辑*与-】quot;Collective Identity in a Democratic Community: The Case of NATO,【-逻*辑*与-】quot; Peter J. Katzenstein ed. , The Culture of National Security: Norms and Identity in World Politics (Beijing: Peking University Press, 2009), pp. 357-399.
Sergey Smolnikov, Great Power Conduct and Credibility in World Politics(Cham, Switzerland: Springer International Publishing, Palgrave Macmillan, 2018), pp. 5, 185-188; Soo Young Rieh and David R. Danielson, 【-逻*辑*与-】quot;Credibility-A Multidisciplinary Framework,【-逻*辑*与-】quot; Annual Review of Information Science and Technology, Vol. 41, No. 1, 2008, pp.307-364.
Sergey Smolnikov, Great Power Conduct and Credibility in World Politics(Cham, Switzerland: Springer International Publishing, Palgrave Macmillan, 2018), pp. 188-189;
Sergey Smolnikov, Great Power Conduct and Credibility in World Politics(Cham, Switzerland: Springer International Publishing, Palgrave Macmillan, 2018), pp. 188-190; Paul I. Rosenthal, 【-逻*辑*与-】quot;Specificity, Verifiability, and Message Credibility,【-逻*辑*与-】quot; Quarterly Journal of Speech , Vol. 57, No. 4, 1971, pp. 393-401.
Sergey Smolnikov, Great Power Conduct and Credibility in World Politics(Cham, Switzerland: Springer International Publishing, Palgrave Macmillan, 2018), pp. 186, 188-190; Carl I. Hovland et al. , Communication and Persuasion : Psychological Studies of Opinion Change (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1953), Chapter 2; Michael D. Slater and Donna Rouner, " How Message Evaluation and Source Attributes May Influence Credibility Assessment and Belief Change,【-逻*辑*与-】quot; Journalism and Mass Communication Quarterly, Vol. 73, No. 4, 1996, pp. 974-991.
Henry A. Kissinger, Nuclear Weapons and Foreign Policy (New York: Harper 【-逻*辑*与-】amp; Row, 1957), p. 12; Stephen Walt, 【-逻*辑*与-】quot;Why Alliances Endure or Collapse," Survival, Vol. 39, No. 1, 1997, pp. 160-161, 165.
Yan Xuetong, Leadership and the Rise of Great Powers (Princeton and Oxford: Princeton University Press, 2019), pp. 17-18, 70.
Sergey Smolnikov, Great Power Conduct and Credibility in World Politics(Cham, Switzerland: Springer International Publishing, Palgrave Macmillan, 2018), p. 204; William Curti Wohlforth, The Elusive Balance: Power and Perceptions During the Cold War (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1993), p. 301.
Brett Ashley Leeds, 【-逻*辑*与-】quot;Alliance Reliability in Times of War: Explaining State Decisions to Violate Treaties,【-逻*辑*与-】quot; International Organization, Vol. 57, No. 4, 2003, pp. 801-827; Mark J. C. Crescenzi and Jacob D. Kathman, 【-逻*辑*与-】quot;Reliability, Reputation, and Alliance Formation,【-逻*辑*与-】quot; International Studies Quarterly, Vol. 56, No. 2, 2012, pp. 259-274.
Gregory D. Miller, "Hypotheses on Reputation: Alliance Choices and the Shadow of the Past,【-逻*辑*与-】quot; Security Studies, Vol. 12, No. 3, 2003, pp. 40-78; Gregory D. Miller, The Shadow of the Past : Reputation and Military Alliances before the First World War (Ithaca and London: Cornell University Press, 2012) ; Mark J. C. Crescenzi and Jacob D. Kathman, 【-逻*辑*与-】quot;Reliability, Reputation, and Alliance Formation,【-逻*辑*与-】quot; International Studies Quarterly, Vol. 56, No. 2, 2012, pp. 259-274; Alex Weisiger and Keren Yarhi-Milo, 【-逻*辑*与-】quot;Revisiting Reputation: How Past Actions Matter in International Politics," International Organization, Vol. 69, No.2, 2015, pp. 473-495; Brad L. LeVeck and Nei Narang, "How International Reputation Matters: Revisiting Alliance Violations in Context,【-逻*辑*与-】quot; International Interactions, Vol. 43, No. 5, 2017, pp. 797-821; Shiping Tang, 【-逻*辑*与-】quot;Reputation, Cult of Reputation, and International Conflict,【-逻*辑*与-】quot; Security Studies, Vol. 14, No. 1, 2005, pp.34-62; Dannielle L. Lupton, 【-逻*辑*与-】quot;Signaling Resolve: Leaders, Reputations, and the Importance of Early Interactions,【-逻*辑*与-】quot; International Interactions, Vol. 44, No. 1, 2018, pp.59-87.
Yan Xuetong, Leadership and the Rise of Great Powers (Princeton and Oxford: Princeton University Press, 2019), pp.48-53.
Sergey Smolnikov, Great Power Conduct and Credibility in World Politics(Cham, Switzerland: Springer International Publishing, Palgrave Macmillan, 2018), pp. 180-184.
Robert J. McMahon, 【-逻*辑*与-】quot;Credibility and World Power: Exploring the Psychological Dimension in Postwar American Diplomacy,【-逻*辑*与-】quot; Diplomatic History, Vol. 15, No. 4, 1991, pp. 455-472.
Steven R. Weisman, 【-逻*辑*与-】quot;President Appeals before Congress for Aid to Latins," New York Times, April 28, 1983, p. A1, https://www.nytimes.com/1983/04/28/world/president-appeals-before-congress-for-aid-to-latins.html,访问时间:2019年12月17日;Stephen Walt, 【-逻*辑*与-】quot;Why Alliances Endure or Collapse,【-逻*辑*与-】quot; Survival, Vol. 39, No. 1 , 1997, pp. 175-76.
【-逻*辑*与-】quot;Clinton【-逻*辑*与-】apos;s Words on Bosnia: 【-逻*辑*与-】apos;The Right Thing to Do【-逻*辑*与-】apos; ,【-逻*辑*与-】quot; New York Times, November 28, 1995, p.A14, https://www.nytimes.com/1995/11/28/world/balkan-accord-clinton-s-words-on-mission-to-bosnia-the-right-thing-to-do.html,访问时间:2019年12月17日;Stephen Walt, 【-逻*辑*与-】quot;Why Alliances Endure or Collapse,【-逻*辑*与-】quot; Survival, Vol. 39, No.1, 1997, p.177.
Henry A. Kissinger, Nuclear Weapons and Foreign Policy (New York: Harper 【-逻*辑*与-】amp; Row, 1957 ), p. 12; James E. Dougherty and Robert L. Pfaltzgraff Jr, Contending Theories of International Relations (New York: Addison Wesley Longman, 2001) , pp. 351-357; Robert Powell, Nuclear Deterrence Theory: The Search for Credibility (Cambridge 【-逻*辑*与-】amp; New York: Cambridge University Press, 1990).
Sergey Smolnikov, Great Power Conduct and Credibility in World Politics(Cham, Switzerland: Springer International Publishing, Palgrave Macmillan, 2018), Chapter 9.
Yan Xuetong, Leadership and the Rise of Great Powers (Princeton and Oxford: Princeton University Press, 2019), Chapter 1.
James D. Morrow, 【-逻*辑*与-】quot;Alliances, Credibility, and Peacetime Costs,【-逻*辑*与-】quot; Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 38, No. 2, 1994, pp. 270-297.虽然如莫罗所说,由于美国和西欧之间严重的安全相互依赖,美国从越南撤军并未根本损害美国在西欧的战略信誉,但不等于说对其在西欧的战略信誉完全没影响。此外,美国从越南撤军,它在越南的战略信誉就彻底破产了,无论是对于北越的威慑信誉还是对于南越的保护信誉。所以讨论信誉时应该要讲清楚是谁在谁心目中的什么信誉,因为如上文所说,信誉具有主体间性而且类别也不同。
Jesse C Johnson and Stephen Joiner, 【-逻*辑*与-】quot;Power Changes, Alliance Credibility, and Extended Deterrence【-逻*辑*与-】quot; , Conflict Management and Peace Science, First Published on March 7, 2019, https://doi.org/10.1177/0738894218824735,访问时间:2019年12月17日。
Michael C. Horowitz, Paul Poast and Allan C. Stam, 【-逻*辑*与-】quot;Domestic Signaling of Commitment Credibility: Military Recruitment and Alliance Formation,【-逻*辑*与-】quot; Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 61, No. 8, 2017, pp. 1682-1710.
Gregory D. Miller, "Hypotheses on Reputation: Alliance Choices and the Shadow of the Past,【-逻*辑*与-】quot; Security Studies, Vol. 12, No. 3, 2003, pp. 40-78; Gregory D. Miller, The Shadow of the Past : Reputation and Military Alliances before the First World War (Ithaca and London: Cornell University Press, 2012) ; Mark J. C. Crescenzi and Jacob D. Kathman, 【-逻*辑*与-】quot;Reliability, Reputation, and Alliance Formation,【-逻*辑*与-】quot; International Studies Quarterly, Vol. 56, No. 2, 2012, pp. 259-274; Brad L. LeVeck and Nei Narang, 【-逻*辑*与-】quot;How International Reputation Matters: Revisiting Alliance Violations in Context," International Interactions, Vol. 43, No. 5, 2017, pp. 797-821.
Stephen Walt, 【-逻*辑*与-】quot;Why Alliances Endure or Collapse,【-逻*辑*与-】quot; Survival, Vol. 39, No. 1 , 1997, pp. 160-161, 165.
Steve Weber, Multilateralism in NATO: Shaping the Postwar Balance of Power, 1945-1961 (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1991) ; Steve Weber, 【-逻*辑*与-】quot;Shaping the Postwar Balance of Power: Multilateralism in NATO,【-逻*辑*与-】quot; International Organization, Vol. 46, No. 3, 1992, pp. 634-680; Christopher Hemmer and Peter J. Katzenstein, 【-逻*辑*与-】quot;Why is There No NATO in Asia? Collective Identity, Regionalism, and the Origins of Multilateralism,【-逻*辑*与-】quot; International Organization, Vol. 56, No. 3, 2002, pp. 575-607; Amitav Acharya, 【-逻*辑*与-】quot;Why Is There No NATO in Asia? The Normative Origins of Asian Multilateralism,【-逻*辑*与-】quot; Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University, Working Paper No. 05-05, July, 2005, pp. 1-54; Victor D. Cha, 【-逻*辑*与-】quot;Powerplay Origins of the U.S. Alliance System in Asia,【-逻*辑*与-】quot; International Security, Vol. 34, No. 3, 2009, pp. 158-196; Kai He and Huiyun Feng, 【-逻*辑*与-】quot;【-逻*辑*与-】apos;Why Is There No NATO in Asia?【-逻*辑*与-】apos; Revisited: Prospect theory, Balance of Threat, and US Alliance Strategies,【-逻*辑*与-】quot; European Journal of International Relations, Vol. 18, No. 2, 2012, pp. 227-250.
Michael F. Altfeld, 【-逻*辑*与-】quot;The Decision to Ally: A Theory and Test,【-逻*辑*与-】quot; The Western Political Quarterly , Vol. 37, No. 4, 1984, pp. 523-544; James D. Morrow, 【-逻*辑*与-】quot;Alliances and Asymmetry: An Alternative to the Capability Aggregation Model of Alliances," American Journal of Political Science, Vol. 35, No. 4, 1991, pp. 904-933;苏若林、唐世平:《相互制约:联盟管理的核心机制》,《当代亚太》2012年第3期,第6—38页;周建仁:《战略分歧、自助能力与同盟解体》,《世界经济与政治》2013年第1期,第67—92页;周建仁:《走向决裂:弱国退出同盟之谜》,北京:社会科学文献出版社,2018年,第3—4章。
Brett Leeds and Burcu Savun, 【-逻*辑*与-】quot;Terminating Alliances: Why Do States Abrogate Agreements?【-逻*辑*与-】quot; Journal of Politics, Vol. 69, No. 4, 2007, pp. 1118-1132.
周建仁:《走向决裂:弱国退出同盟之谜》,北京:社会科学文献出版社,2018年,第3章。
Stanley Hoffman, 【-逻*辑*与-】quot;Obstinate of Obsolete? The Fate of the Nation State and the Case of Western Europe,【-逻*辑*与-】quot; Daedalus, Vol. 95, No. 4, 1966, pp. 862-915.霍夫曼的这种区分本意在于解释欧盟在不同领域中的合作水平差异,高位政治领域冲突性高合作水平低,而低位政治领域冲突性低可以推动功能性合作。
Kenneth N. Waltz, Theory of International Politics (Reading, Massachusetts: Addison-Wesley Publishing Company, 1979), pp. 91, 126;阎学通:《中国国家利益分析》,天津人民出版社,1997年,第67页。
罗伯特·K·默顿是最早提出【-逻*辑*与-】quot;相对剥夺感【-逻*辑*与-】quot;概念的学者之一,参见:Robert K. Merton,【-逻*辑*与-】quot;Social Structure and Anomie,【-逻*辑*与-】quot; American Sociological Review, Vol. 3, No. 5, 1938.有关相对剥夺感的概念界定参见:James A. Davis,【-逻*辑*与-】quot;A Formal Interpretation of the Theory of Relative Deprivation,【-逻*辑*与-】quot; Sociometry, Vol. 22, No. 4, 1959, pp. 280-196; Iain Walker and Heather J. Smith, Relative Deprivation: Specification, Development, and Integration (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2001) ; Kurt Bayertz, Solidarity(Dordrecht: Springer, 1999), p. 144; Richard T. Schaefer, Racial and Ethnic Groups(New Jersey: Pearson Education, 2008), 11th Ed., p. 69; A. F. Coleman, Oxford Dictionary of Psychology (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2006), 2nd ed., pp. 672-82.学者运用相对剥夺理论解释许多群体现象以及社会失范行为包括政治暴力,比如暴乱、内战等,参见:Samuel Stouffer et al., The American Soldier, Vol. 1 (Princeton, N. J. : Princeton University Press, 1949); Ted Robert Gurr, Why Men Rebel (Princeton, N. J. : Princeton University Press, 1970) ; Jerry D. Rose, Outbreaks, the Sociology of Collective Behavior (New York: Free Press, 1982) ; Walter Garrison Runciman, Relative Deprivation and Social Justice: A Study of Attitudes to Social Inequality in Twentieth-century England (California: University of California Press, 1966) ; Diana Kendall, Sociology In Our Times (Belmont, CA: Wadsworth, 2011), 8th ed. , p.669; David R. Griffin, Spirituality and Society : Postmodern Visions (Albany, N. Y. : State University of New York Press, 1988), p. 29; James M. Olson, C. Peter Herman and Mark P. Zanna, eds. , Relative Deprivation and Social Comparison (Hillsdale, N.J. : Lawrence Erlbaum Associates, 1986).有关相对剥夺理论的回顾参见:Iain Walker and Thomas F. Pettigrew,【-逻*辑*与-】quot;Relative Deprivation Theory: An Overview and Conceptual Critique,【-逻*辑*与-】quot; British Journal of Social Psychology, Vol. 23, No. 4, 1984, pp. 301-310; Craig Webber,【-逻*辑*与-】quot;Revaluating Relative Deprivation Theory,【-逻*辑*与-】quot; Theoretical Criminology, Vol. 11, No. 1, 2007, pp. 97-120; Heather J. Smith and Thomas F. Pettigrew,【-逻*辑*与-】quot;Advances in Relative Deprivation Theory and Research,【-逻*辑*与-】quot; Social Justice Research, Vol. 28, No. 1, 2015, pp. 1-6.
该理论由丹尼尔·卡尼曼(Daniel Kahneman)和阿莫斯·特沃斯基(Amos Tversky)于1979年提出,其主要通过心理学的实验方法研究人们面临风险时的决策行为。他们认为人们对于风险的接受程度受到其面临损失还是面临收益的影响。而人们是依据其主观设定的一个参照点(reference point)来判断其到底是面临损失还是面临收益,参见:Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky,【-逻*辑*与-】quot;Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk,【-逻*辑*与-】quot; Econometrica , Vol. 47, No. 2, 1979, pp. 263-292.
Lars-Erik Cederman, Nils B. Weidmann and Kristian Skrede Gleditsch, "Horizontal Inequalities and Ethnonationalist Civil War: A Global Comparison," American Political Science Review, Vol. 105, No. 3, 2011, pp. 478-495; Lars-Erik Cederman et al., Inequality, Grievances, and Civil War (New York, NY: Cambridge University Press, 2013).
实力不对称的同盟更不容易解体,参见:Michael F. Altfeld,【-逻*辑*与-】quot;The Decision to Ally: A Theory and Test,【-逻*辑*与-】quot; The Western Political Quarterly, Vol. 37, No. 4, 1984, pp. 523-544; James D. Morrow,【-逻*辑*与-】quot;Alliances and Asymmetry: An Alternative to the Capability Aggregation Model of Alliances,【-逻*辑*与-】quot; American Journal of Political Science, Vol. 35, No. 4, 1991 , pp. 904-933; D. Scott Bennett,【-逻*辑*与-】quot;Testing Alternative Models of Alliance Duration, 1816—1984,【-逻*辑*与-】quot; American Journal of Political Science, Vol. 41, No. 3, 1997, pp. 846-878; Brett Ashley Leeds and Burcu Savun,【-逻*辑*与-】quot;Terminating Alliances: Why Do States Abrogate Agreements?【-逻*辑*与-】quot; Journal of Politics, Vol. 69, No.4, 2007, pp. 1118-1132.
已有同盟研究表明替代性同盟的存在会增大同盟解体的可能性,参见:Brett Ashley Leeds and Burcu Savun,【-逻*辑*与-】quot;Terminating Alliances: Why Do States Abrogate Agreements?【-逻*辑*与-】quot; Journal of Politics, Vol. 69, No. 4, 2007, pp. 1118-1132;黄宇兴:《再结盟预期与履约行为》,《国际政治科学》2017年第1期,第71—99页。
感谢杨原提出的批评意见让笔者意识到安全依赖程度高可能也存在对抗效应。
Irving L. Janis, Groupthink : Psychological Studies of Policy Decisions and Fiascoes (Boston, MA: Houghton Mifflin, 1982), 2nd ed. ; Michael A. Wallach, Nathan Kogan and Daryl J. Bem, "Group Influence on Individual Risk Taking,【-逻*辑*与-】quot; Journal of Abnormal and Social Psychology, Vol. 65, No.2, 1962, pp. 75-86; Michael A. Wallach, Nathan Kogan and Daryl J. Bem, 【-逻*辑*与-】quot;Diffusion of Responsibility and Level of Risk Taking in Groups,【-逻*辑*与-】quot; Journal of Abnormal and Social Psychology, Vol. 68, No. 3, 1964, pp. 263-274; Michael A. Wallach and Nathan Kogan, 【-逻*辑*与-】quot;The Roles of Information, Discussion, and Consensus in Group Risk Taking,【-逻*辑*与-】quot; Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, Vol. 1, No. 1, 1965, pp. 1-19; Barry E. Collins and Harold Steere Guetzkow, A Social Psychology of Group Processes for Decision-making (New York: Wiley, 1964) ; Roger Brown, Social Psychology (New York: Free Press, 1965); Y. Rim, 【-逻*辑*与-】quot;Leadership Attitudes and Decisions Involving Risk,【-逻*辑*与-】quot; Personnel Psychology, Vol. 18, No. 4, 1965, pp. 423-430; George C. Hoyt and James A. F. Stoner, 【-逻*辑*与-】quot;Leadership and Group Decisions Involving Risk,【-逻*辑*与-】quot; Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, Vol. 4, No. 3, 1968, pp. 275-284.当然后续的研究发现群体更可能出现风险极化而非风险平移,即政策要么更具风险要么更加谨慎,而到底是更具风险还是更加谨慎则受群体中的主流价值观影响,参见:James A. F. Stoner, 【-逻*辑*与-】quot;Risky and Cautious Shifts in Group Decisions: The Influence of Widely Held Values,【-逻*辑*与-】quot; Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, Vol.4, No.4, 1968, pp. 442-459.
Kenneth N. Waltz, Theory of International Politics (Reading, Massachusetts: Addison-Wesley Publishing Company, 1979), p. 13.
【-逻*辑*与-】quot;The Black Swan President,【-逻*辑*与-】quot; Politico, November 12, 2016, https://www. politico.com/magazine/story/2016/11/donald-trump-president-white-house-policy-black-swan-214450,访问时间:2019年12月17日。
Peter Baker, 【-逻*辑*与-】quot;Trump Abandons Trans-Pacific Partnership, Obama【-逻*辑*与-】apos;s Signature Trade Deal,【-逻*辑*与-】quot; New York Times, January 23, 2017, https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/23/us/politics/tpp-trump-trade-nafta.html,访问时间:2019年12月17日;Adam Behsudi and Nancy Cook, 【-逻*辑*与-】quot;Trump Will Quit TPP in First Days,【-逻*辑*与-】quot; Politico, November 8, 2016, https://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/donald-trump-trade-tpp-231212,访问时间:2019年12月17日;BBC, 【-逻*辑*与-】quot;Trump Says US to Quit TPP on First Day in Office," November 22, 2016, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-38059623,访问时间:2019年12月17日。
New York Times, 【-逻*辑*与-】quot;U. S. Is Quitting UNESCO, Affirms Backing for U. N. ," December 30, 1983, https://www.nytimes.com/1983/12/30/world/us-is-quitting-unescoaffirms-backing-for-un.html,访问时间:2019年12月17日;CNN, 【-逻*辑*与-】quot;Bush to Quit ABM Treaty Thursday,【-逻*辑*与-】quot; December 12, 2001, https://edition.cnn.com/2001/ALLPOLITICS/12/12/rec.bush.abm.treaty/index.html,访问时间:2019年12月17日。
【-逻*辑*与-】quot;Trump Says He Will 【-逻*辑*与-】apos;Renegotiate’ NAFTA,【-逻*辑*与-】quot; Huffington Post, April 26, 2017, https://www.huffpost.com/entry/naft-quit-trump_n_5900d5c0e4b081a5c0f9ff72? guccounter =1【-逻*辑*与-】amp;guce_referrer =aHR0cDovL3d3dy5iaW5nLmNvbS9zZWFyY2g_cT10 cnVtcCtxdWl0K25hZnRhJmdvPVNlYXJjaCZxcz1uJnNwPS0xJnBxPXRydW1wK3F1aXQ rbmFmdGEmc2M9Mi0xNiZzaz0mY3ZpZD1DQTY3QkZEQjU0OEY0RjkwOTk1RkExN0ExQTdDMjUzNSZta3Q9emgtQ04mZmlyc3Q9OCZGT1JNPVBPUkU【-逻*辑*与-】amp;guce_referrer_sig = AQAAAAkEf1Lf8xzAcOfsMpxLQfYbVDcYLNjiIDiRA74nTbCE4IVHfgM _4jS7gzHIfZ KwhRkc8CqYKMOyBnUgT6xyU98uit0Y5Kzfiki5K1JccozL6-7ljMuFmI8lAFJhjePJy_0k MH9kHhszwueBSWYh8FXK_fIc7FOrjvJJzH9hQ-MP,访问时间:2019年12月17日;Jeff Mason and David Lawder, 【-逻*辑*与-】quot;Trump Says Was 【-逻*辑*与-】apos;Psyched to Terminate NAFTA’ but Reconsidered,【-逻*辑*与-】quot; Reuters, April 27, 2017, https://www.reuters.com/article/US-usa-trade-nafta-idUSKBN17S2DG,访问时间:2019年12月17日;【-逻*辑*与-】quot;NAFTA Renegotiation Begins: What Do US, Canada, Mexico Really Want?【-逻*辑*与-】quot; Sputnik News, August 16, 2017, https://sputniknews.com/us/201708161056493062-nafta-renegotiation-begins-trade-agreement/,访问时间:2019年12月17日;【-逻*辑*与-】quot;Donald Trump Revives Threat to Pull US out of NAFTA ,【-逻*辑*与-】quot; Financial Times, August 24, 2017, https://www.ft.com/content/cfdcec24-87c2-11e7-bf50-e1c239b45787,访问时间:2019年12月17日;Jennifer Jacobs, 【-逻*辑*与-】quot;Trump Says U. S. Close on NAFTA Revision but Threatens to Quit Deal,【-逻*辑*与-】quot; Bloomberg, April 10, 2018, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-09/trump-says-u-s-close-on-nafta-revision-but-threatens-pullout,访问时间:2019年12月17日。
【-逻*辑*与-】quot;Trump : 【-逻*辑*与-】apos;We May Terminate’ U.S.-South Korea Trade Agreement,【-逻*辑*与-】quot; Washington Post, April 28, 2017, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-we-may-terminate-us-south-korea-trade-agreement/2017/04/27/75ad1218-2bad-11e7-a616-d7c8a68c1a66_story. html,访问时间:2019年12月17日。
Damian Paletta, 【-逻*辑*与-】quot;Trump Preparing Withdrawal from South Korea Trade Deal, a Move Opposed by Top Aides,【-逻*辑*与-】quot; Washington Post, September 2, 2017, https://www. washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2017/09/02/trump-plans-withdrawal-from-south-korea-trade-deal/,访问时间:2019年12月17日;Hyunmin Michael Kang, 【-逻*辑*与-】quot;US and South Korea Agree to Initiate FTA Amendment Negotiations,【-逻*辑*与-】quot; The Diplomat, October 6, 2017, https://thediplomat.com/2017/10/us-and-south-korea-agree-to-initiate-fta-amendment-negotiations/,访问时间:2019年12月17日。
Ana Swanson, 【-逻*辑*与-】quot;Trump to Impose Sweeping Steel and Aluminum Tariffs,【-逻*辑*与-】quot; New York Times, March 1, 2018, https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/01/business/trump-tariffs. html,访问时间:2019年12月17日;【-逻*辑*与-】quot;Presidential Proclamation on Adjusting Imports of Steel into the United States,【-逻*辑*与-】quot; White House, March 8, 2018, https://www. whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/presidential-proclamation-adjusting-imports-steel-united-states/,访问时间:2019年12月17日;Peter Baker and Ana Swanson, 【-逻*辑*与-】quot;Trump Authorizes Tariffs, Defying Allies at Home and Abroad,【-逻*辑*与-】quot; New York Times, March 8, 2018, https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/08/us/politics/trump-tariff-announcement.html,访问时间:2019年12月17日。虽然特朗普起初豁免了加拿大和墨西哥,但是后来仍于2018年5月31日宣布对它们征税直到2019年5月17日宣布取消,参见:Larry Elliot, Richard Partington and Edward Helmore, 【-逻*辑*与-】quot;US on Brink of Trade War with EU, Canada and Mexico as Tit-for-Tat Tariffs Begin,【-逻*辑*与-】quot; The Guardian , May 31 , 2018, https://www. theguardian.com/business/2018/may/31/us-fires-opening-salvo-in-trade-war-with-eu-canada-and-mexico,访问时间:2019年12月17日;Kevin Liptak, Paula Newton and Haley Byrd, 【-逻*辑*与-】quot;US Lifts Steel and Aluminum Tariffs on Canada and Mexico,【-逻*辑*与-】quot; CNN, May 17, 2019, https://www.cnn.com/2019/05/17/politics/steel-tariffs-trump-canada-mexico/index.html,访问时间:2019年12月17日。
Richard Partington, 【-逻*辑*与-】quot;Trump Threatens Car Tariffs after EU Sets up £2.5 Billions of Levies on US,【-逻*辑*与-】quot; The Guardian, June 22, 2018, https://www.theguardian. com/business/2018/jun/22/bourbon-levis-prices-rise-eu-enforces-tariffs-us,访问时间:2019年12月17日。
Andrew Roth etc., 【-逻*辑*与-】quot;Trump Calls European Union a 【-逻*辑*与-】apos;Foe’-Ahead of Russia and China,【-逻*辑*与-】quot; The Guardian, July 15, 2018, https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/jul/15 /donald-trump-vladimir-putin-helsinki-russia-indictments; Maegan Vazquez, 【-逻*辑*与-】quot;Trump Calls the European Union a 【-逻*辑*与-】apos;Foe’ of the United States,【-逻*辑*与-】quot; CNN, July 16, https://www. cnn.com/2018/07/15/politics/donald-trump-european-union-foe/index.html,访问时间:2019年12月17日。
James Freeman, 【-逻*辑*与-】quot;Trump Eyes a Japan Trade Fight,【-逻*辑*与-】quot; Wall Street Journal , September 6, 2018, https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-eyes-a-japan-trade-fight-1536260141,访问时间:2019年12月17日;Will Martin, 【-逻*辑*与-】quot;It Looks Like Trump Has Found the Next Big Target in His Trade War-Japan,【-逻*辑*与-】quot; Business Insider, September 7, 2018, https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-trade-war-japan-tariffs-on-cars-2018-9,访问时间:2019年12月17日;Dan Murphy, 【-逻*辑*与-】quot;Japan Has Become the 【-逻*辑*与-】apos;Obvious Target【-逻*辑*与-】apos; for Trump【-逻*辑*与-】apos;s Next Trade Salvo,【-逻*辑*与-】quot; CNBC, September 7, 2018, https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/07/japan-has-become-the-obvious-target-for-trumps-next-trade-salvo.html,访问时间:2019年12月17日
Philip Crowther, 【-逻*辑*与-】quot;Trump Threatens to Quit NATO: White House Official," France 24, May 18, 2017, https://www.france24.com/en/20170518-white-house-official-trump-threatens-leave-nato-usa-g7-russia,访问时间:2019年12月17日。
C-SPAN, 【-逻*辑*与-】quot;President Confirms He Threatened to Withdraw from NATO Over Funding Levels,【-逻*辑*与-】quot; August 21, 2018, https://www.c-span.org/video/? c4745235/president-confirms-threatened-withdraw-nato-funding-levels【-逻*辑*与-】amp;start =3030,访问时间:2019年12月17日。
Julian E. Barnes and Helene Cooper, 【-逻*辑*与-】quot;Trump Discussed Pulling U. S. from NATO, Aides Say Amid New Concerns Over Russia,【-逻*辑*与-】quot; New York Times, January 14, 2019, https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/14/us/politics/nato-president-trump.html,访问时间:2019年12月17日。当然如上文所述私下的讨论和国家政策还是不一样,虽然也会引起一定程度的担心。
Jacob Pramuk, 【-逻*辑*与-】quot;Trump Gave a Speech to NATO Leaders, But It【-逻*辑*与-】apos;s What He Left out That Got Their Attention,【-逻*辑*与-】quot; CNBC, May 25, 2017, https://www.cnbc.com/2017/05/25/trump-does-not-mention-support-for-article-5-in-nato-speech.html,访问时间:2019年12月17日;Rosie Gray, 【-逻*辑*与-】quot;Trump Declines to Affirm NATO【-逻*辑*与-】apos;s Article 5," The Atlantic, May 25, 2017, https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2017/05/trump-declines-to-affirm-natos-article-5/528129/,访问时间:2019年12月17日;Alex Ward, 【-逻*辑*与-】quot;Trump Just Committed to NATO【-逻*辑*与-】apos;s Article 5. Finally.【-逻*辑*与-】quot; Vox, June 9, 2017, https://www.vox.com/world/2017/6/9/15772292/trump-article-5-nato-commit,访问时间:2019年12月17日;北约第五条款参见:NATO website, 【-逻*辑*与-】quot;The North Atlantic Treaty,【-逻*辑*与-】quot; https://www. nato.int/cps/en/natolive/official_texts_17120.htm,访问时间:2019年12月17日。
新华社:《特朗普首次表态支持北约第五条款》,2017年6月10日,http://www.xinhuanet.com/world/2017-06/10/c_1121120320.htm,访问时间:2019年12月17日;Alex Ward,【-逻*辑*与-】quot;Trump Just Committed to NATO【-逻*辑*与-】apos;s Article 5. Finally.【-逻*辑*与-】quot; Vox, June 9, 2017, https://www.vox.com/world/2017/6/9/15772292/trump-article-5-nato-commit,访问时间:2019年12月17日;Jacob Pramuk,【-逻*辑*与-】quot;Trump Endorses NATO【-逻*辑*与-】apos;s Mutual Defense Pact in Poland, after Failing to Do So on First Europe Trip,【-逻*辑*与-】quot;CNBC, July 6, 2017, https://www.cnbc.com/2017/07/06/trump-us-stands-firmly-behind-nato-article-5.html,访问时间:2019年12月17日;Idrees Ali,【-逻*辑*与-】quot;French Minister Expresses Concern about Long-Term U.S. Commitment to NATO,【-逻*辑*与-】quot;Reuters, March 19, 2019, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-france-usa-nato-idUSKCN1QZ29K,访问时间:2019年12月14日。
【-逻*辑*与-】quot;Remarks by President Trump on the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action," White House, May 8, 2018, https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/remarks-president-trump-joint-comprehensive-plan-action/,访问时间:2019年12月17日;Mark Landler, 【-逻*辑*与-】quot;Trump Abandons Iran Nuclear Deal He Long Scorned,【-逻*辑*与-】quot; New York Times, May 8, 2018, https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/08/world/middleeast/trump-iran-nuclear-deal.html,访问时间:2019年12月17日;Saeed Kamali Dehghan, 【-逻*辑*与-】quot;What Is the Iran Deal and Why Does Trump Want to Scrap it?【-逻*辑*与-】quot; The Guardian, May 9, 2018, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/may/08/iran-nuclear-deal-what-is-it-why-does-trump-want-to-scrap-it,访问时间:2019年12月17日。
Kingston Reif, 【-逻*辑*与-】quot;Trump to Withdraw U.S. from INF Treaty,【-逻*辑*与-】quot; Arms Control Association, November 2018, https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2018-11/news/trump-withdraw-us-inf-treaty,访问时间:2019年12月17日;The White House, 【-逻*辑*与-】quot;Statement from the President Regarding the Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty,【-逻*辑*与-】quot; February 1, 2019, https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/statement-president-regarding-intermediate-range-nuclear-forces-inf-treaty/,访问时间:2019年12月17日;Julian Borger, 【-逻*辑*与-】quot;Donald Trump Confirms US Withdrawal from INF Nuclear Treaty,【-逻*辑*与-】quot; The Guardian, February 1, 2019, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/feb/01/inf-donald-trump-confirms-us-withdrawal-nuclear-treaty,访问时间:2019年12月17日;Nahal Toosi, Nancy Cook and Bryan Bender, 【-逻*辑*与-】quot;Trump Makes It Official: U.S. to Quit Missile Treaty with Russia,【-逻*辑*与-】quot; Politico, February 1, 2019, https://www.politico.com/story/2019/02/01/trump-inf-treaty-russia-1141617,访问时间:2019年12月17日;BBC, 【-逻*辑*与-】quot;France【-逻*辑*与-】apos;s Macron Pushes for 【-逻*辑*与-】apos;True European Army【-逻*辑*与-】apos; ,【-逻*辑*与-】quot; November 6, 2018, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-46108633,访问时间:2019年12月17日;Ishaan Tharoor, 【-逻*辑*与-】quot;Trump Opens the Door to Chaos as Landmark Treaty Expires,【-逻*辑*与-】quot; Washington Post, August 2, 2019, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2019/08/02/trump-opens-door-chaos-landmark-treaty-expires/,访问时间:2019年12月17日;BBC, 【-逻*辑*与-】quot;INF Nuclear Treaty: US Pulls Out of Cold War-era Pact with Russia,【-逻*辑*与-】quot; August 2, 2019, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-49198565,访问时间:2019年12月17日;Glen Carey, 【-逻*辑*与-】quot;U.S. Tests Cruise Missile after Quitting INF Treaty with Russia,【-逻*辑*与-】quot; Bloomberg, August 20, 2019, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-19/u-s-tests-cruise-missile-after-quitting-inf-treaty-with-russia,访问时间:2019年12月17日。
The White House, 【-逻*辑*与-】quot;Statement from the Press Secretary,【-逻*辑*与-】quot; October 6, 2019, https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/statement-press-secretary-85/; https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1181172457811697664,访问时间:2019年12月17日。
Michel Rose, "France【-逻*辑*与-】apos;s Macron Says NATO Suffering 【-逻*辑*与-】apos;Brain Death’, Questions U.S. Commitment,【-逻*辑*与-】quot; Reuters, November 7, 2019, https://www.reuters. com/article/us-nato-france/frances-macron-questions-u-s-commitment-to-nato-in-economist-interview-idUSKBN1XH1GG,访问时间:2019年12月17日。
Jennifer Jacobs, 【-逻*辑*与-】quot;Trump Muses Privately about Ending Postwar Japan Defense Pact,【-逻*辑*与-】quot; Bloomberg, June 25, 2019, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-06-25/trump-muses-privately-about-ending-postwar-japan-defense-pact? utm_medium = social【-逻*辑*与-】amp;utm_content =business【-逻*辑*与-】amp;cmpid =socialflow-twitter-business【-逻*辑*与-】amp;utm _source = twitter【-逻*辑*与-】amp;utm_campaign=socialflow-organic,访问时间:2019年12月17日。
Michael R. Gordon and Motoko Rich, 【-逻*辑*与-】quot;Jim Mattis Says U.S. Is 【-逻*辑*与-】apos;Shoulder to Shoulder’ With Japan,【-逻*辑*与-】quot; New York Times, February 3, 2017, https://www.nytimes. com/2017/02/03/world/asia/us-japan-mattis-abe-defense.html,访问时间:2019年12月17日。
U.S. Department of Defense, 【-逻*辑*与-】quot;Joint Press Briefing by Secretary Mattis and Minister Inada in Tokyo, Japan,【-逻*辑*与-】quot; February 4, 2019, https://www.defense.gov/Newsroom/Transcripts /Transcript /Article/1071436/joint-press-briefing-by-secretary-mattis-and-minister-inada-in-tokyo-japan/,访问时间:2019年12月17日。
Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan, 【-逻*辑*与-】quot;Japan-U.S. Security Treaty,【-逻*辑*与-】quot; https://www.mofa.go.jp/region/n-america/us/q【-逻*辑*与-】amp;a/ref/1.html,访问时间:2019年12月17日。
The White House, 【-逻*辑*与-】quot;Joint Statement from President Donald J. Trump and Prime Minister Shinzo Abe,【-逻*辑*与-】quot; February 10, 2019, https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/joint-statement-president-donald-j-trump-prime-minister-shinzo-abe/,访问时间:2019年12月18日。
Justin McCurry and Tania Branigan, 【-逻*辑*与-】quot;Obama Says US Will Defend Japan in Island Dispute with China,【-逻*辑*与-】quot; The Guardian, April 24, 2014, https://www.theguardian. com/world/2014/apr/24/obama-in-japan-backs-status-quo-in-island-dispute-with-china,访问时间:2019年12月18日;BBC, 【-逻*辑*与-】quot;Obama Asia Tour: US-Japan Treaty 【-逻*辑*与-】apos;Covers Disputed Islands【-逻*辑*与-】apos; ,【-逻*辑*与-】quot; 24 April, 2014, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-27137272,访问时间:2019年12月18日;Office of the Press Secretary, The White House, Joint Press Conference with President Obama and Prime Minister Abe of Japan, April 24, 2014, https: //obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/the-press-office/2014/04/24/joint-press-conference-president-obama-and-prime-minister-abe-japan,访问时间:2019年12月18日;Office of the Press Secretary, The White House, 【-逻*辑*与-】quot;Remarks by President Obama and Prime Minister Abe of Japan in Joint Press Conference,【-逻*辑*与-】quot; April 28, 2015, https://obamawhitehouse.archives. gov/the-press-office/2015/04/28/remarks-president-obama-and-prime-minister-abe-japan-joint-press-confere,访问时间:2019年12月18日。
Michael R. Gordon and Motoko Rich, 【-逻*辑*与-】quot;Jim Mattis Says U.S. Is 【-逻*辑*与-】apos;Shoulder to Shoulder’ With Japan,【-逻*辑*与-】quot; New York Times, February 3, 2017, https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/03/world/asia/us-japan-mattis-abe-defense.html,访问时间:2019年12月17日。
Julia Manchester, 【-逻*辑*与-】quot;Mattis Warns North Korea of 【-逻*辑*与-】apos;Massive Military Response【-逻*辑*与-】apos; If It Threatens US, Allies,【-逻*辑*与-】quot; The Hill, September 3, 2017, https://thehill.com/policy/defense/349081-mattis-on-north-korea-we-are-not-looking-for-the-annihilation-of-north-korea,访问时间:2019年12月18日。
Council on Foreign Relations, 【-逻*辑*与-】quot;Joint Remarks by President Obama and President Lee Myung-bak,【-逻*辑*与-】quot; June 16, 2009, http://www.cfr.org/proliferation/joint-remarks-president-obama-president-lee-myung-bak-june-2009/p1964,访问时间:2019年12月18日;BBC, 【-逻*辑*与-】quot;North Korea Nuclear: US Vows to 【-逻*辑*与-】apos;Defend Self and South【-逻*辑*与-】apos; ,【-逻*辑*与-】quot; 3 April, 2013, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-22010726,访问时间:2019年12月18日;CNN, Greg Botelho and Euan McKirdy, 【-逻*辑*与-】quot;U.N. Poised to Act Against North Korea after Latest Nuclear Test,【-逻*辑*与-】quot; January 7, 2016, http://edition.cnn.com/2016/01/06/asia/north-korea-hydrogen-bomb-test/,访问时间:2019年12月18日。
Karen Lema and Neil Jerome Morales, 【-逻*辑*与-】quot;Pompeo Assures Philippines of U.S. Protection in Event of Sea Conflict,【-逻*辑*与-】quot; Reuters, March 1, 2019, https://www.reuters. com/article/us-philippines-usa/pompeo-assures-philippines-of-us-protection-in-event-of-sea-conflict-idUSKCN1QI3NM,访问时间:2019年12月18日;《蓬佩奥:南中国海若有事美保证助菲国抵御【-逻*辑*与-】quot;武装攻击【-逻*辑*与-】quot; 》,《联合早报》2019年3月2日,http: //www.zaobao. com/news/sea/story20190302-936216,访问时间:2019年12月14日。
Bonnie S. Glaser, 【-逻*辑*与-】quot;Armed Clash in the South China Sea,【-逻*辑*与-】quot; Contingency Planning Memorandum No. 14, CFR, http://www.cfr.org/asia-and-pacific/armed-clash-south-china-sea/p27883,访问时间:2019年12月18日;Jojo Malig, "Will the US Defend Philippines If China Attacks?【-逻*辑*与-】quot; ABS-CBN News, Jul 25 2012, http://news.abs-cbn. com/-depth/07/25/12/will-us-defend-philippines-if-china-attacks,访问时间:2019年12月18日;【-逻*辑*与-】quot;Philippines Says U.S. Obligated to Help in Case of Attack,【-逻*辑*与-】quot; Reuters, Apr 30, 2014, http://www.reuters.com/article/us-philippines-usa-idUSBREA3T02U20140430,访问时间:2019年12月18日。
有关情况参见:https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/house-bill/535/all-info; Gerrit van der Wees, 【-逻*辑*与-】quot;The Taiwan Travel Act in Context,【-逻*辑*与-】quot; The Diplomat, March 19, 2018, https://thediplomat.com/2018/03/the-taiwan-travel-act-in-context/,访问时间:2019年12月18日。
有关法案情况参见:https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/house-bill/2002/all-info; 【-逻*辑*与-】quot;U.S. House Passes Pro-Taiwan Bills, amid Trade Tensions with China," Reuters, May 8, 2019, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-china-taiwan-congress/us-house-passes-pro-taiwan-bills-amid-trade-tensions-with-china-idUSKCN1SE00T,访问时间:2019年12月18日。
Ryan Browne and Kevin Liptak, 【-逻*辑*与-】quot;Trump Admin Gives Green Light for Major Arms Sale to Taiwan,【-逻*辑*与-】quot; CNN, August 16, 2019, https://www.cnn.com/2019/08/16/politics/arms-sale-taiwan/index.html,访问时间:2019年12月18日;Cary Huang, 【-逻*辑*与-】quot;Under Trump, US Arms Sales to Taiwan Could Be the New Normal,【-逻*辑*与-】quot; South China Morning Post, August 25, 2019, https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/opinion/article/3024132/under-trump-us-arms-sales-taiwan-could-be-new-normal,访问时间:2019年12月18日;Lawrence Chung, 【-逻*辑*与-】quot;Beijing Demands US Halt Biggest Arms Sale to Taiwan of Donald Trump【-逻*辑*与-】apos;s Presidency,【-逻*辑*与-】quot; South China Morning Post, July 9, 2019, https://www. scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3017801/biggest-arms-sale-taiwan-donald-trumps-presidency-shows,访问时间:2019年12月18日;马晓叶:《美国对台军售真能给台湾带来所谓的安全保障吗?》,国际在线,2019年9月3日,https://www.sohu.com/a/338384674_115239,访问时间:2019年12月18日。
《美国海军一艘巡洋舰通过台湾海峡台军:全程掌握动态》,《环球时报》2019年9月20日,https://baijiahao.baidu.com/s? id=1645200516455827265【-逻*辑*与-】amp;wfr=spider【-逻*辑*与-】amp;for=pc,访问时间:2019年12月18日;【-逻*辑*与-】quot;China Bristles at Western Naval Transits through the Taiwan Strait,【-逻*辑*与-】quot; The Economist, May 9, 2019, https://www.economist.com/china/2019/05/09/china-bristles-at-western-naval-transits-through-the-taiwan-strait,访问时间:2019年12月18日;Seth Robson,【-逻*辑*与-】quot;Navy Sends a Pair of Guided-missile Destroyers through Taiwan Strait,【-逻*辑*与-】quot; Stars and Stripes, April 29, 2019, https://www.stripes.com/news/pacific/navy-sends-a-pair-of-guided-missile-destroyers-through-taiwan-strait-1.578863,访问时间:2019年12月18日;Matt Yu, Emerson Lim and Chung Yu-chen,【-逻*辑*与-】quot;Eleventh U.S. Warship Sails through Taiwan Strait since January,【-逻*辑*与-】quot; Focus Taiwan, July 25, 2019, http://focustaiwan.tw/news/aipl/201907250018.aspx,访问时间:2019年12月18日。
Teddy Ng, 【-逻*辑*与-】quot;US Steps up Freedom of Navigation Patrols in South China Sea to Counter Beijing【-逻*辑*与-】apos;s Ambitions,【-逻*辑*与-】quot; South China Morning Post , February 16, 2019, https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/2186461/us-steps-freedom-navigation-patrols-south-china-sea-counter,访问时间:2019年12月18日。
U.S. Department of Defense, DoD Annual Freedom of Navigation (FON ) Reports, https://policy.defense.gov/ousdp-offices/fon/,访问时间:2019年12月18日;Hyun-Binn Cho and Umut Yüksel, 【-逻*辑*与-】quot;Getting Freedom of Navigation Operations Right in the South China Sea,【-逻*辑*与-】quot; National Interest , April 10, 2019, https://nationalinterest.org/feature/getting-freedom-navigation-operations-right-south-china-sea-51892,访问时间:2019年12月18日。
Jean-Loup Samaan, 【-逻*辑*与-】quot;Confronting the Flaws in America【-逻*辑*与-】apos;s Indo-Pacific Strategy," War on Rocks, February 11, 2019, https://warontherocks.com/2019/02/confronting-the-flaws-in-americas-indo-pacific-strategy/,访问时间:2019年12月18日;Lee Jeong-ho, 【-逻*辑*与-】quot;Is the United States about to Ramp up Its Indo-Pacific Strategy to Contain China?" South China Morning Post, May 27, 2019, https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3012010/united-states-about-ramp-its-indo-pacific-strategy-contain,访问时间:2019年12月18日;Kuni Miyake, 【-逻*辑*与-】quot;What Does the 【-逻*辑*与-】apos;Indo-Pacific Strategy’ Mean?" Japanese Times, March 11, 2019, https://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion/2019/03/11 /commentary/japan-commentary/indo-pacific-strategy-mean/#.Xb7i0C275-U,访问时间:2019年12月18日;U.S. Department of Defense, 【-逻*辑*与-】quot;Indo-Pacific Strategy Report: Preparedness, Partnerships, and Promoting a Networked Region,【-逻*辑*与-】quot; June 1, 2019, https://media. defense.gov/2019/Jul/01/2002152311/-1/-1/1/DEPARTMENT-OF-DEFENSE-INDO-PACIFIC-STRATEGY-REPORT-2019.PDF,访问时间:2019年12月18日;Bureau of East Asian and Pacific Affairs, 【-逻*辑*与-】quot;A Free and Open Indo-Pacific: Advancing a Shared Vision,【-逻*辑*与-】quot; Department of State, November 4, 2019, https://www.state.gov/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/Free-and-Open-Indo-Pacific-4Nov2019.pdf,访问时间:2019年12月18日。
Tim Walker and David Usborne, 【-逻*辑*与-】quot;Donald Trump Meets with Japanese PM Shinzo Abe for First Foreign Meeting,【-逻*辑*与-】quot; Independent, November 18, 2016, https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/politics/donald-trump-election-latest-japanese-prime-minister-shinzo-abe-meeting-a7424106.html,访问时间:2019年12月18日;Rachel Mealey, 【-逻*辑*与-】quot;Japanese PM Shinzo Abe Meets with Donald Trump in First Foreign Leader Meeting,【-逻*辑*与-】quot; Australian Broadcasting Corporation News, November 18, 2016, https://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-11-18/shinzo-abe-meets-donald-trump-in-new-york/8036408,访问时间:2019年12月18日。
Katie Rogers and Motoko Rich, 【-逻*辑*与-】quot;For Trump【-逻*辑*与-】apos;s Japan Trip, Abe Piles on the Flattery. But to What End?【-逻*辑*与-】quot; New York Times, May 24, 2019, https://www.nytimes. com/2019/05/24/us/politics/trump-japan-abe-flattery.html,访问时间:2019年12月18日。
Steve Holland and David Lawder, 【-逻*辑*与-】quot;Japan Dodges U.S. Auto Tariffs, for Now, as Trump and Abe Agree on Trade Talks,【-逻*辑*与-】quot; Reuters, September 27, 2018, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-japan/japan-dodges-u-s-auto-tariffs-for-now-as-trump-and-abe-agree-on-trade-talks-idUSKCN1M62Q9,访问时间:2019年12月18日;Motoko Rich, 【-逻*辑*与-】quot;Japan【-逻*辑*与-】apos;s Embrace of Bilateral Trade Talks With U.S. Spares It From Tariffs," New York Times, September 27, 2018, https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/27/world/asia/japan-trump-trade-talks-auto-tariffs.html,访问时间:2019年12月18日。
BBC, 【-逻*辑*与-】quot;US and Japan Agree Initial Trade Deal Focusing on Agriculture," September 26, 2019, https://www.bbc.com/news/business-49834705,访问时间:2019年12月18日。
【-逻*辑*与-】quot;U.S.-Japan Trade Agreement Text,【-逻*辑*与-】quot; Office of the United States Trade Representative, https: //ustr.gov/countries-regions/japan-korea-apec/japan/us-japan-trade-agreement-negotiations/us-japan-trade-agreement-text,访问时间:2019年12月18日;Niv Elis, 【-逻*辑*与-】quot;US, Japan Sign Trade Deals", The Hill, October 7, 2019, https://thehill. com/homenews/news/464732-us-japan-sign-trade-deals,访问时间:2019年12月18日。
Damian Paletta, 【-逻*辑*与-】quot;Trump Preparing Withdrawal from South Korea Trade Deal, a Move Opposed by Top Aides,【-逻*辑*与-】quot; Washington Post, September 2, 2017, https://www. washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2017/09/02/trump-plans-withdrawal-from-south-korea-trade-deal/,访问时间:2019年12月17日;Hyunmin Michael Kang, 【-逻*辑*与-】quot;US and South Korea Agree to Initiate FTA Amendment Negotiations,【-逻*辑*与-】quot; The Diplomat, October 6, 2017, https://thediplomat.com/2017/10/us-and-south-korea-agree-to-initiate-fta-amendment-negotiations/,访问时间:2019年12月17日。
Jim Tankersley, 【-逻*辑*与-】quot;Trump Signs Revised Korean Trade Deal,【-逻*辑*与-】quot; New York Times, September 24, 2019, https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/24/us/politics/south-korea-trump-trade-deal.html,访问时间:2019年12月18日;Simon Lester, Inu Manak and Kyounghwa Kim, 【-逻*辑*与-】quot;Trump【-逻*辑*与-】apos;s First Trade Deal: The Slightly Revised Korea U.S. Free Trade Agreement,【-逻*辑*与-】quot; CATO Institute, June 13, 2019, https://www.cato.org/publications/free-trade-bulletin/trumps-first-trade-deal-slightly-revised-korea-us-free-trade,访问时间:2019年12月18日。
Choe Sang-Hun, 【-逻*辑*与-】quot;U.S. and South Korea Sign Deal on Shared Defense Costs," New York Times, February 10, 2019, https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/10/world/asia/us-south-korea-military-costs.html? module=inline,访问时间:2019年12月18日。
Jon Henley, 【-逻*辑*与-】quot;Angela Merkel: EU Cannot Completely Rely on US and Britain Any More,【-逻*辑*与-】quot; The Guardian, May 28, 2017, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/may/28 /merkel-says-eu-cannot-completely-rely-on-us-and-britain-any-more-g7-talks,访问时间:2019年12月18日。
Jordan Fabian and Morgan Gstalter, 【-逻*辑*与-】quot;Merkel: Europe Can No Longer Rely on US Protection,【-逻*辑*与-】quot; The Hill, May 10, 2018, https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/387067-merkel-europe-cant-count-on-us-to-protect-us-anymore,访问时间:2019年12月18日。
BBC, 【-逻*辑*与-】quot;France【-逻*辑*与-】apos;s Macron Pushes for 【-逻*辑*与-】apos;True European Army【-逻*辑*与-】apos; ,【-逻*辑*与-】quot; November 6, 2018, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-46108633,访问时间:2019年12月17日;Frida Ghitis, 【-逻*辑*与-】quot;Trump Is Driving Europe Away. But to Where?【-逻*辑*与-】quot; Politico, November 9, 2018, https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2018/11/09/trump-driving-europe-away-222401,访问时间:2019年12月18日;Peter Baker, 【-逻*辑*与-】quot;Trump Assails Macron and Defends Decision to Skip Cemetery Visit,【-逻*辑*与-】quot; New York Times, November 13, 2018, https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/13/us/politics/trump-macron-france.html? action=click【-逻*辑*与-】amp;module=RelatedCoverage【-逻*辑*与-】amp;pgtype=Article【-逻*辑*与-】amp;region=Footer,访问时间:2019年12月18日。
Katrin Bennhold and Steven Erlanger, 【-逻*辑*与-】quot;Merkel Joins Macron in Calling for a European Army 【-逻*辑*与-】apos;One Day【-逻*辑*与-】apos; ,【-逻*辑*与-】quot; New York Times, November 13, 2018, https://www. nytimes.com/2018/11/13/world/europe/merkel-macron-european-army.html,访问时间:2019年12月18日;孙少锋、陈曦:《法德欲建【-逻*辑*与-】quot;欧洲军队【-逻*辑*与-】quot;欧洲防务一体化能走多远?》,《人民日报(海外版)》2018年11月17日,http://www.xinhuanet.com/mil/2018-11/17/c_129996308.htm,访问时间:2019年12月18日。
Stefan Kornelius and Philip Oltermann, 【-逻*辑*与-】quot;Merkel: Europe Must Unite to Stand up to China, Russia and US,【-逻*辑*与-】quot; The Guardian, May 15, 2019, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/may/15 /angela-merkel-interview-europe-eu-unite-challenge-us-russia-china,访问时间:2019年12月18日;徐蕾:《默克尔:欧洲必须应对三大对手,但中俄与美国不太一样》,观察者网,2019年5月16日,http://www.sohu.com/a/314340579_115479,访问时间:2019年12月18日。
【-逻*辑*与-】quot;Emmanuel Macron Warns Europe: NATO Is Becoming Brain-dead,【-逻*辑*与-】quot; The Economist, November 7, 2019, https://www.economist.com/europe/2019/11/07/emmanuel-macron-warns-europe-nato-is-becoming-brain-dead,访问时间:2019年12月14日;Michel Rose, 【-逻*辑*与-】quot;France【-逻*辑*与-】apos;s Macron Says NATO Suffering 【-逻*辑*与-】apos;Brain Death【-逻*辑*与-】apos; , Questions U.S. Commitment," Reuters, November 7, 2019, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-nato-france/frances-macron-questions-u-s-commitment-to-nato-in-economist-interview-idUSKBN1XH1GG,访问时间:2019年12月17日。
Stephen Walt, The Origins of Alliances (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1987), Preface, p.ix; Stephen Walt, 【-逻*辑*与-】quot;Why Alliances Endure or Collapse,【-逻*辑*与-】quot; Survival, Vol. 39, No.1, 1997, p.156.
Kenneth N. Waltz, Theory of International Politics (Reading, Massachusetts: Addison-Wesley Publishing Company, 1979), p. 105; Arthur A. Stein, 【-逻*辑*与-】quot;Coordination and Collaboration Regimes in an Anarchic World,【-逻*辑*与-】quot; International Organization, Vol. 36, No. 2, 1982, p. 318; Joseph M. Grieco, 【-逻*辑*与-】quot;Anarchy and the Limits of Cooperation: A Realist Critique of the Newest Liberal Institutionalism,【-逻*辑*与-】quot; International Organization, Vol. 42, No. 3, 1988, pp. 485-507; Robert Powell, 【-逻*辑*与-】quot;Absolute and Relative Gains in International Relations Theory,【-逻*辑*与-】quot; American Political Science Review, Vol. 85, No. 4, 1991, pp. 1303-1320.